The dismissiveness with which Trump treats relations with nations that are friends and allies, glossing over tactless comments as jokes or misunderstandings, is reminiscent of other world leaders who have used bullying, threats and aggression to assert dominance and control.
By Fareed Khan
In the realm of international relations, political rhetoric matters. Words, especially those coming from the leaders of nations, carry weight and can serve as precursors to actions. Donald Trump's return to the American presidency four years after a tumultuous first term, characterized by divisive comments about allies and threats against those who wronged him, raises alarming questions about the future of US-Canada relations.
In light of his recent belittling remarks regarding Canada's sovereignty, and the potential for aggressive action against Canada — a neighbour, long time ally, and largest trading partner — should be taken seriously. American aggression against Canada is not merely a hypothetical scenario but a plausible outcome given Trump's erratic behavior, his lack of respect for political and diplomatic conventions, and his history of treating international relations as transactions rather than friendships.
A hostile comment passed off as a joke
At a recent event to honour Trump's political triumphs, he doubled down on comments that can only be interpreted as mockery towards Canada and Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau. During the Fox Nation's "Patriot of the Year" ceremony, Trump repeated a remark that Canada should consider becoming the "51st state" and encouraged a chant from the audience that derided Canada's status as an independent nation. While this comment has been framed as a joke by Trump insiders, they reflect a dismissive attitude towards one of America's closest allies and sends a troubling message that undermines Canadian sovereignty.
These comments followed his threats to impose a staggering 25% tariff on Canadian imports to the US in response to an unfounded claim that Canada was failing to stem the flow of drugs and illegal immigrants into the US. This rhetoric echoes Trump's longstanding pattern of using fear and hostility to control narratives and assert dominance, not just over individuals but entire nations. He appears to perceive Canada not as a partner, but as an entity that must bend to American whims, a notion that is fundamentally colonial and imperialist in its orientation.
The realities of tariffs and economic consequences
Should Trump follow through with his tariff threat, the repercussions for the Canadian economy would be dire given Canada’s dependence on the US as it’s largest trading partner. Retaliation by the Canadian government would be inevitable, and the likelihood of an escalating trade war would result in ominous consequences for both nations, with retaliatory measures by Canada inviting a further response from a Trump administration, fuelling a cycle of hostility that would severely damage Canada-US relations.
Trump's propensity for rash reactions to perceived provocations cannot be underestimated. If history has shown us anything, it is that he views conflicts as power struggles that need to be won at all costs. Thus, if a trade war ensues, the escalation could veer into territory with ominous implications for Canadian sovereignty.
The possible threat of military action
Trumps aggressive attitude towards Canada and other allied nations during his first administration signals how he would behave during his second administration, and is not the sort of thing one expects from the leader of a nation that is a friend. It is something one sees mainly in politicians with a far right, and some would say fascist, world view. And given that fears surrounding Trump's fascist tendencies have been highlighted in public statements by former Trump administration officials, as well as by his ex-wife Ivana Trump, all of whom alleged that he was a fascist and admired authoritarian figures such as Adolf Hitler, should raise dozens of red flags in Ottawa and across the country about what will happen when Trump is in full control of the US government.
The possible threat of military action
Trumps aggressive attitude towards Canada and other allied nations during his first administration signals how he would behave during his second administration, and is not the sort of thing one expects from the leader of a nation that is a friend. It is something one sees mainly in politicians with a far right, and some would say fascist, world view. And given that fears surrounding Trump's fascist tendencies have been highlighted in public statements by former Trump administration officials, as well as by his ex-wife Ivana Trump, all of whom alleged that he was a fascist and admired authoritarian figures such as Adolf Hitler, should raise dozens of red flags in Ottawa and across the country about what will happen when Trump is in full control of the US government.
The dismissiveness with which Trump treats relations with nations that are friends and allies, glossing over tactless comments as jokes or misunderstandings, is reminiscent of other world leaders who have used bullying, threats and aggression to assert dominance and control. The last hundred years is replete with examples of national leaders who, when diplomacy failed, resorted to sabre rattling and even military interventions to achieve their objectives. As disturbing and unlikely as it may sound, the undercurrent of Trump's rhetoric could easily be a precursor to military action against Canada — especially in the context of controlling resources such as fresh water and critical mineral resources of value to the US and its military.
The role of military command and loyalty
Trump's proposed cabinet and the allegiance he seeks from those he is nominating to senior positions raises further concerns. His inclination to fill key positions with loyalists — individuals more interested in serving Trump's agenda than in upholding democratic tenets or maintaining positive relations with allies — means that checks and balances within the US political system are eroding. When in office this could also extend to his choice of military leaders, who historically are supposed to serve the national interest and defend the US Constitution. However, if Trump's regime consists of zealots with a belief in American exceptionalism and superiority, we may find them willing to support aggressive actions against non-existent threats.
Imagining a scenario where US military forces are directed against Canada is not as far-fetched as it appears under a fascist minded Trump administration. Once feeling threatened economically or politically Trump may resort to using all US resources including the military to assert dominance over Canada either through threats or direct action.
A Call to Canadian Vigilance
The growing body of evidence — both from public statements and actions taken by Trump since he first entered politics — demands that Canadian officials reassess their approach to dealing with him over the next four years. Trump's penchant for belittling Canada, paired with the very real threat of economic warfare, must be viewed as a potential precursor to more aggressive actions. Taking into account his apparent affinity for authoritarian and militaristic leaders it is imperative for Canada to enhance its defence strategies and alliances with allies, particularly those in NATO, that prioritize sovereignty and democratic values.
Canada's leaders must prepare for all scenarios while addressing domestic political concerns affected by a potential trade war or even more aggressive US actions. Engaging with international bodies, strengthening partnerships with other allied nations, and fostering resilience at home will be vital to safeguard Canada and its interests.
Canadian leaders have been complacent about the Canada-US relationship for far too long. In the coming years diplomatic niceties may not suffice with a US leader like Trump, a man who sees relationships as transactional, subject to capricious whims.
Trump’s 51st state comment is a bad joke — until such a time it isn’t. Therefore, it is incumbent upon Canadian leaders to take Trump’s tariff threats seriously in ways they haven't considered before, and to prepare to deal with the US in ways that haven't been contemplated since the 19th century.
The time to act to defend Canadian sovereignty from US aggression is now, and the potential for American aggression arising out of an economic dispute should not be dismissed as hyperbole. In a scenario where Canada-US relations could be upended it is better to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best.
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