Before Russia’s 2022 assault on Ukraine, the Russian president spent years laying groundwork — claiming historical rights, questioning borders, and using economic pressure to destabilize Kyiv. Trump is taking a similar approach . . .
For a century and a half, Canada and the United States have shared a peaceful border, rooted in mutual respect, economic ties, and democratic values. The last hints of American aggression toward Canada faded after the Civil War, when fear of invasion helped unite British North American colonies into Canada in 1867. Now, that dormant threat has reemerged under US President Donald Trump. His erratic behaviour, inflammatory rhetoric, and willingness to unravel longstanding treaties signals a danger that Canada cannot ignore. As a result, Ottawa must prepare for the unthinkable – a military incursion from the south, driven by a deranged leader whose actions echo Russia’s prelude to invading Ukraine.
By Fareed Khan
For a century and a half, Canada and the United States have shared a peaceful border, rooted in mutual respect, economic ties, and democratic values. The last hints of American aggression toward Canada faded after the Civil War, when fear of invasion helped unite British North American colonies into Canada in 1867. Now, that dormant threat has reemerged under US President Donald Trump. His erratic behaviour, inflammatory rhetoric, and willingness to unravel longstanding treaties signals a danger that Canada cannot ignore. As a result, Ottawa must prepare for the unthinkable – a military incursion from the south, driven by a deranged leader whose actions echo Russia’s prelude to invading Ukraine.
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Trump seems to be following Vladimir Putin’s playbook. Before Russia’s 2022 assault on Ukraine, the Russian president spent years laying groundwork — claiming historical rights, questioning borders, and using economic pressure to destabilize Kyiv. Trump is taking a similar approach by challenging the 1908 Canada–US border treaty, calling it outdated and asserting American claims to Canadian land, water, and the Great Lakes. On March 4, 2025, he launched a trade war by imposing a 25% tariff on Canadian goods despite a free trade agreement he signed with Canada in 2020. Following a tense phone call with Trump the following day Prime Minister Justin Trudeau decided to warn Canadians that the tariffs were a prelude aimed to weaken Canada’s economy with the goal of annexation by the US.
If one looks closely Trump’s actions fit the pattern Putin used – economic leverage and territorial claims to justify aggression. His concerns about illegal migrants and fentanyl originating from Canada have evolved into trade warfare and hints of military action. Should Trump escalate his approach, he might consider deploying US troops to “secure” what he perceives as American interests on Canadian soil. This potential aggression necessitates that Canada begin preparations for a possible military incursion.
While the likelihood of a US military incursion into Canada is remote, it is not outside the realm of possibility. Speculation about a potential US invasion has emerged in both Canadian and US media. History has shown that trade wars can escalate into military conflicts, with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 serving as a prime example. This series of tariffs aimed to protect the US economy resulted in retaliatory tariffs that severely hampered global trade and played a significant role in the onset of the Great Depression. Ultimately, this paved the way for protectionism, nationalism, and the conditions which led to the outbreak of World War II.
If the US occupied Canada it would be disastrous for both nations according to defence experts. It could provoke a prolonged insurgency, as the sheer size and resilience of the Canadian population would make it difficult for US forces to maintain control. If just 1% of Canada’s 41 million citizens took up arms – 410,000 people – that would dwarf the Taliban’s forces in Afghanistan. Guerrilla tactics, engaging in hit-and-run operations rather than conventional warfare, against American targets would define the Canadian resistance
Canadians, despite our reputation for politeness, possess a resilient spirit, which is already surfacing amid a wave of patriotism. Historical precedents, such as the American experiences in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, show that occupations often ignite defiance instead of submission. An invasion of Canada could turn into a quagmire for the US, diverting resources while emboldening Russian and Chinese expansionist ambitions.
Furthermore, Canada cannot assume it would stand alone. As a NATO member, the expectation would be for allies such as the UK, France, and Germany to respond. However, NATO is already strained by tensions with Russia in Eastern Europe, and in recent meetings with the leaders of France and the UK, the new prime minister Mark Carney did not get any overt statements of support, suggesting that a North American crisis could weaken the alliance and potentially fracture it in the face of a US attack on Canada. While Commonwealth countries such as the UK, Australia, and New Zealand might offer support, their capacity to assist Canada militarily would be limited.
The circumstances in which Canada finds itself demands self-reliance. Ottawa should move immediately to fund modernization of the military, increase military recruitment and troop readiness, and stockpile supplies while strengthening infrastructure, energy independence, and civilian defence. In addition, Canadian leaders must rally global condemnation of Trump’s annexation threats to isolate the US politically. But preparation must go beyond words, because if tariffs are Trump’s opening salvo Canada should not wait to see what comes next.
Canada would suffer greatly but it would endure. Trump seems blind to the prospect of mutual destruction. But Trump’s actions suggest he is unbound by sanity or history. Canada can’t dismiss him as eccentric, and based on his words and actions over the past few months, must now treat him and the US as an aggressor. The US hasn’t been Canada’s enemy since the 19th century, but under Trump, that has changed in the span of a few months.
The Canadian government must act to strengthen the country’s defences, rally allies, and prepare Canadians for a fight we hope to avoid. Failing to do so would further risk our sovereignty and Canada’s survival as an independent nation.
If one looks closely Trump’s actions fit the pattern Putin used – economic leverage and territorial claims to justify aggression. His concerns about illegal migrants and fentanyl originating from Canada have evolved into trade warfare and hints of military action. Should Trump escalate his approach, he might consider deploying US troops to “secure” what he perceives as American interests on Canadian soil. This potential aggression necessitates that Canada begin preparations for a possible military incursion.
While the likelihood of a US military incursion into Canada is remote, it is not outside the realm of possibility. Speculation about a potential US invasion has emerged in both Canadian and US media. History has shown that trade wars can escalate into military conflicts, with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 serving as a prime example. This series of tariffs aimed to protect the US economy resulted in retaliatory tariffs that severely hampered global trade and played a significant role in the onset of the Great Depression. Ultimately, this paved the way for protectionism, nationalism, and the conditions which led to the outbreak of World War II.
If the US occupied Canada it would be disastrous for both nations according to defence experts. It could provoke a prolonged insurgency, as the sheer size and resilience of the Canadian population would make it difficult for US forces to maintain control. If just 1% of Canada’s 41 million citizens took up arms – 410,000 people – that would dwarf the Taliban’s forces in Afghanistan. Guerrilla tactics, engaging in hit-and-run operations rather than conventional warfare, against American targets would define the Canadian resistance
Canadians, despite our reputation for politeness, possess a resilient spirit, which is already surfacing amid a wave of patriotism. Historical precedents, such as the American experiences in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, show that occupations often ignite defiance instead of submission. An invasion of Canada could turn into a quagmire for the US, diverting resources while emboldening Russian and Chinese expansionist ambitions.
Furthermore, Canada cannot assume it would stand alone. As a NATO member, the expectation would be for allies such as the UK, France, and Germany to respond. However, NATO is already strained by tensions with Russia in Eastern Europe, and in recent meetings with the leaders of France and the UK, the new prime minister Mark Carney did not get any overt statements of support, suggesting that a North American crisis could weaken the alliance and potentially fracture it in the face of a US attack on Canada. While Commonwealth countries such as the UK, Australia, and New Zealand might offer support, their capacity to assist Canada militarily would be limited.
The circumstances in which Canada finds itself demands self-reliance. Ottawa should move immediately to fund modernization of the military, increase military recruitment and troop readiness, and stockpile supplies while strengthening infrastructure, energy independence, and civilian defence. In addition, Canadian leaders must rally global condemnation of Trump’s annexation threats to isolate the US politically. But preparation must go beyond words, because if tariffs are Trump’s opening salvo Canada should not wait to see what comes next.
Canada would suffer greatly but it would endure. Trump seems blind to the prospect of mutual destruction. But Trump’s actions suggest he is unbound by sanity or history. Canada can’t dismiss him as eccentric, and based on his words and actions over the past few months, must now treat him and the US as an aggressor. The US hasn’t been Canada’s enemy since the 19th century, but under Trump, that has changed in the span of a few months.
The Canadian government must act to strengthen the country’s defences, rally allies, and prepare Canadians for a fight we hope to avoid. Failing to do so would further risk our sovereignty and Canada’s survival as an independent nation.
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