The International Court of
Justice’s ruling on climate change recognized that it poses an immediate and
far-reaching threat to people around the world and has implications for the
full enjoyment of human rights.
Twenty-two
years ago, the Pentagon’s Office
of Net Assessment, a highly regarded internal think tank, sounded an alarm
that reverberated through US defence circles. Its 2003 report, An Abrupt Climate Change
Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security,
warned that climate change could surpass terrorism as a national security
threat by 2008, driven by abrupt climate shifts that would trigger resource
scarcity, mass migration, and widespread conflict.
The
report drew on studies of prehistoric weather patterns and the ocean’s
thermohaline circulation, which regulates global climate by distributing warm
and cold currents. It cautioned that rapid polar ice melt would release vast
amounts of freshwater, disrupting ocean salinity and slowing the ocean currents
which regulate weather patterns, leading to catastrophic changes like violent
storms, and rising sea levels. The impact of such changes would affect low
lying coastal regions most dramatically, and could result in Siberia-like
winters in Europe and North America, alongside droughts and shortened growing
seasons in key agricultural regions, resulting in political and economic instability
around the world. Though the report’s most extreme timeline predictions have
not fully materialized, its scientific foundation remains robust, and its
warnings about climate-driven insecurity are now unfolding with alarming
clarity.
On
July 23, 2025, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) amplified these
concerns with a landmark
advisory opinion, declaring that a state’s failure to take decisive action
against climate change could constitute an “internationally wrongful act”, and
potentially a crime against humanity. The court underscored the gravity of the situation
as “an existential problem of planetary proportions that imperils all forms of
life and the very health of our planet.” The unanimous ruling by the court’s 15
judges affirmed that a “clean, healthy, and sustainable environment” is a human
right, establishing a legal framework that could hold nations accountable for
environmental harm caused by their actions or inaction.
Today,
the predictions of the 2003 report are no longer speculative—they are unfolding
before our eyes. The World
Meteorological Organization confirmed 2024 as the hottest year on
record, with global temperatures approximately 1.55°C above pre-industrial
levels. Extreme weather events—scorching heatwaves, devastating floods, massive
wildfires, and intensified hurricanes and typhoons—are becoming more frequent
and severe, causing more deaths and more physical damage year after year.
For
instance, in 2024 Hurricane
Helene devastated coastal and inland communities in the United States, with
studies attributing its catastrophic impact to climate change. In Asia,
typhoons and floods displaced nearly eight million people in 2024, while in South
Sudan, four consecutive years of flooding submerged two-thirds of the
country, exacerbating a hunger crises. Wildfires have also surged, with the
western United States experiencing a 500% increase in burned areas between 1972
and 2018, and similar trends observed in Canada, Europe, and Australia. These
events have released millions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere,
creating a feedback loop that intensifies global warming and heightens security
risks worldwide.
Poorer nations, which contribute the
least to global GHG emissions, face the most severe consequences, their
national security threats amplified, with little recourse to address them. In
Sudan, decades of droughts, rainfall variability, and desertification have
driven 15
million people into severe hunger, with climate shocks compounding regional
conflict. In Bangladesh, a 2024 flood affected over 18 million, with
more than 1.2 million people trapped by flash flooding in eastern and south-eastern
parts of the country, underscoring the vulnerability of low-lying regions to
rising sea levels and extreme weather events. These nations already grapple
with food and water insecurity, mass displacement, and heightened conflict over
dwindling resources. The added crises of climate related catastrophes is
something beyond their ability to address on their own.
There
is also the fact that climate change acts as a “threat
multiplier,” intensifying existing conflicts and creating complex
humanitarian crises. By 2040, extreme climate
hazards are projected to include a third of the planet’s nations, with most
hosting displaced populations, posing security challenges for themselves and
their neighbours.
As
climate-driven instability grows, richer regions and nations—North America,
Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand—are likely to adopt a
fortress mentality to protect their resources and borders, a scenario
envisioned by the Pentagon report. It warned
that wealthier nations would eventually face an influx of millions of climate
refugees from Africa, Asia, and South America, and that by
2050, climate change could push 158 million more women and girls into
poverty, and 236 million into hunger, fuelling migration from vulnerable
regions. In response, richer nations may fortify their borders, as seen in
debates over migration in the US and various European countries, where
climate-driven displacement is already a factor amplifying security concerns.
The
potential for military conflict escalates as resource scarcity intensifies, a
risk the Pentagon identified. The US intelligence community’s 2021 National
Intelligence Estimate pinpointed 11 countries, including Afghanistan,
India, and Pakistan, as particularly vulnerable to climate-induced instability.
Competition over fresh water, food, and energy could spark conflicts or even societal
collapse, particularly in regions like the Middle East and North Africa, where
water scarcity and extreme heat already strains societies. In Jordan,
population growth and refugee influxes from neighbouring countries already exacerbates
water shortages, while Saudi
Arabia faces the prospect of diminishing aquifers affecting fresh water
availability, and rising sea levels threatening coastal cities.
The
Pentagon’s report also warned of nuclear proliferation as “have-not” nations with
technical know how develop nuclear weapons to secure resources or coerce aid or
resources from their neighbours or wealthier countries. Such scenarios are
plausible, with Egypt’s president hinting at military
action over Nile River water disputes with Ethiopia, a situation
exacerbated by climate change, highlighting the global security stakes.
The
ICJ’s ruling offers a legal framework to hold nations accountable, but its
effectiveness is uncertain when major
powers flout international law elsewhere. The ongoing genocide in Gaza,
labelled by the United Nations, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch as a genocide,
underscores this hypocrisy, as states fail to uphold their obligations, under
the UN Charter, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and the Genocide
Convention, to prevent and punish criminal acts. If nations like Israel, the US
or China evade accountability for atrocities such as crimes against humanity
and genocide, who is to say that they will prioritize climate action when their
own economic interests are at stake?
The
ruling also arrives at a time when global cooperation on climate action is
faltering. Nations like Canada, the US, Australia and Russia—major
GHG producers on a per capita basis—have consistently failed to meet their
emissions reduction targets, undermining the Paris
Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial
levels. Furthermore, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney and American president
Donald Trump have proposed policies to expand fossil fuel extraction in their
respective countries, while China
continues building coal-fired power plants to power its economy. This is despite
warnings from the world’s top climate scientists about the impact that additional
oil and gas extraction, and burning fossil fuels will have on the planet, and the predictions of economic
experts that global oil
production may peak before 2030, all of which could disrupt global energy
markets, substantially increase GHG emissions, and heighten security risks.
The failure to meet GHG reduction
targets compounds the climate crisis, which in turn undermines global security.
The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change emphasizes that emissions must be halved by 2030 to
limit warming to 1.5°C, yet current trajectories suggest a 3°C
increase, with catastrophic consequences. In Asia, rising temperatures and
changing precipitation patterns threaten agricultural productivity which would
impact billions, while urban areas face increased risks from flooding and
heatwaves. These disruptions could drive migration and conflict, as seen in the
war in Syria in the 2010s, and the displacement of tens of millions in
Bangladesh, China, India, and the Philippines due to typhoons and floods over
the past decade. Richer nations’ reliance on fossil fuels contradicts the ICJ’s
call for accountability, exacerbating the security threats identified by the
Pentagon, and putting nations on the path to possible military conflict.
For Canada,
the climate crisis poses unique national security challenges, particularly in
the Arctic. The rapid melting of Arctic ice, driven by increasing water
temperatures, is opening new shipping routes and providing new opportunities to
exploit valuable resources, intensifying competition among nations like Russia,
China, and the United States. Historically, Canada’s territorial sovereignty in
the Arctic was protected by its ice-covered waters, but as the ice retreats,
the region becomes a potential
flashpoint for military conflict. Canada has invested minimally in Arctic
defence since climate change became a major policy issue in the 1990s, relying
on its harsh northern climate as a natural barrier. However, with the Arctic
warming at up to four
times the global rate, Canada must now contend with foreign powers eyeing its
resources in the north and possibly challenging its territorial claims, echoing the
Pentagon’s warnings about climate-driven conflict.
The path forward requires urgent, transformative action. The ICJ’s ruling provides a legal framework for nations to prioritize climate justice and pushes the needle on prioritizing threats to the planet over economic growth. Wealthier nations must lead by reducing emissions, investing in
resilient infrastructure, implementing policies to mitigate GHG emissions, and
supporting vulnerable countries through climate finance and technology
transfers. Programs like the US’s Feed the Future
initiative, which promotes climate-resilient crops, shows potential, but
their scale must expand dramatically and such programs must be adopted by other
food producing giants if future conflict is to be prevented. Individuals can also
pressure their governments to implement policies aligned with the Paris
Agreement and the ICJ’s framework, advocating for equitable solutions that
prioritize the most vulnerable.
The climate crisis is a present reality
that is already having profound implications for global and national security,
it will impact our children and grand children for decades to come. The
Pentagon’s 2003 warning, followed by the ICJ’s 2025 ruling, underscores the
urgent need for action to prevent a future of conflict resulting from climate
change, the mass displacement of hundreds of millions across the globe, and the
adoption of a fortress mentality among those nations that have the resources to
adapt to a changing climate.
For Canada, the melting Arctic ice
signals a new era of vulnerability, where military conflict over sovereignty is
a very real possibility. Without swift, coordinated global efforts, the world
risks descending into a struggle for survival, where the consequences of
inaction or actions that worsen the problem, will be measured in lives lost, nations
divided, and ecosystems despoiled due to climate change related conflicts. The
researchers who authored the Pentagon report painted a bleak picture of the
future if nations didn’t act to implement policies that changed the way
economies were managed. It remains to be seen if political leaders in the seats of economic power around the world heard what they were saying, if they are listening to the ICJ’s recent advisory opinion, and whether they will take action to protect the interests of all of humanity or only those who vote them into power.
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